Climate change

Climatologists are continually striving to better map future climate change and predict it with less uncertainty.

Analysis

To map the effects of climate change, experts have determined:

The impact and probability of all risks for the period 2023-2026.
The probability of all risks for the period 2050-2053, due to climate change.

For this analysis, they used a common climate scenario. This scenario assumes a world where fossil fuels are used on a large scale, and where people adopt a lifestyle that consumes a lot of energy and raw materials. This will lead to a new climate with higher temperatures, as shown in the graph.

Results

The results of this risk analysis are not available to the public. However, you can find several key trends by risk category here.

Cyber risks

Experts predict an increase in only two cyber risks under the influence of climate change: cyber attacks on government institutions and cyber attacks on vital infrastructure. In effect, climate change increases the likelihood of international armed conflicts (in which Belgium is indirectly involved), which may lead to more cyber attacks against institutions.

Economic and technological risks

The impact of climate change on economic and technological risks is relatively low. However, these risks may have indirect consequences due to natural risks, for example:

Local flooding can lead to the release of chemicals (e.g. fuel oil or chemicals) into businesses and homes.
Flooding or erosion can cause bridges to collapse (bridge failure).

Dikes are also vulnerable to climate change. Their essential function requires regular and specific monitoring, as is already the case today.

Health risks

Health risks are closely linked to our ecosystems and environment, regardless of medical developments. This is also clear from our analysis of the effects of climate change. For example:

An increase in invasive alien species under the influence of climate change increases health risks for people (Infectious diseases), animals (Non-zoonotic animal diseases) and plants (Agricultural plant diseases and plagues).
These risks for animals and plants can, in turn, increase the presence of contaminants in food and feed.
The risks of soil, air or water pollution are also increasing due to the effects of climate change, as the number of natural disasters (heat waves, floods, erosion) rises.

Man-made risks

For most man-made risks, there are no direct effects of climate change. However, there is one major exception. The likelihood of international armed conflict will increase considerably by 2050, especially for conflicts outside NATO's borders. If no measures are taken, the consequences of climate change will be serious in the South. International armed conflicts will then be almost inevitable, due for example to the rise of extremism, competition for water and/or fertile land, or massive flows of illegal migration.

The influence of climate change on international armed conflict also has an indirect effect on the likelihood of 3 other risks in 2050: Attacks on vital infrastructure, Influx of people seeking international protection and Human trafficking and smuggling.

Natural risks

As a result of climate change, the average temperature of the Earth has already risen by 1.45°C since pre-industrial times, and by around 2.8°C in Belgium.

In Belgium, we are already seeing longer dry spells in spring, and this is also expected in summer. Heatwaves will increase in duration and intensity, and will no longer be limited to summer. As we approach 2100, experts expect a steady decline in the number of cold spells and extremely low temperatures. As regards snow, hail and icing, current climate models for Belgium and the time line up to 2050 do not yet make it possible to identify a clear trend.

The frequency of intense rainfall will increase in winter, while summer thunderstorms will become less frequent but more violent.

By 2050, this alternation of wet and dry extremes will lead to:

Increased risk of pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding. Extreme precipitation exerts increased pressure on dikes, which can cause them to break, increasing the risk of flooding.
Increased susceptibility of riverbanks to erosion.
An increase in subsidence and soil heave due to changes in soil structure. Clay soils swell in wet conditions and contract during dry periods; karst dissolves more rapidly in water, destabilising underground cavities.
An increase in landslides and mudslides due to reduced slope stability and more saturated soils.

For Western Europe, the current climate simulations predict:

an increase in winds in winter;
a continued rise in sea levels, exposing coasts and shorelines to further change and erosion, in addition to an increased number of storms;
an increase in the presence and spread of certain invasive species.

Phenomena such as lightning and tornadoes are likely to be influenced by climate change, but current observations and projections are not yet robust enough to make reliable forecasts for 2050.

If drought and heat increase with climate change, this creates favourable conditions for wildfires. However, these risks alone are not enough to trigger forest fires. That is why no clear trend has been identified for 2050.

Certain natural risks are not sensitive to climate change: earthquakes, meteorite impacts, tsunamis, solar radiation storms and volcanic eruptions in neighbouring countries. The likelihood of these events therefore remains unchanged for 2050.

Societal risks

Societal risks only have a few direct consequences from climate change. However, indirect effects are also possible: more extreme weather conditions can affect our energy supply, transport, communications, etc. For example, a storm may oblige us to shut down wind turbines, floods can destroy roads or railways, and invasive alien species may disrupt our food supply.