Emerging risks

Antimicrobial resistance is the ability of a micro-organism (bacteria, virus, fungus, parasite) to multiply or survive, even after being brought under control by antibiotics. The WHO has declared antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to be one of the 10 biggest global threats to public health. Antimicrobial resistance is responsible for around 33,000 deaths a year, and costs healthcare systems in EU/EEA countries around €1.1 billion a year.  

• Opportunities: This phenomenon creates a constant need for research into new antibiotics and antimicrobial substances. The science will therefore continue to progress and improve.  
• Dangers: When bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites react less effectively or not at all to medication, antibiotics and other antimicrobial agents are less effective, and infections are increasingly difficult to treat

Biohacking is a very broad term that covers a wide range of activities: from monitoring and optimising your sleep to modifying your biology by injecting another person's blood into your veins, or even injecting DNA into human beings. For this risk, the scope is limited to CRISPR technology. This gene-editing technology is revolutionising biomedical research. It is expected to be applied to humans after 2030. 

• Opportunities: Biohacking makes it possible to correct anomalies in the genome and manipulate genes in cells and organisms, for example to correct a disease or susceptibility to a disease.  
• Dangers: Further scientific research is needed to study the effects of gene modification. There is also the ethical question of the reach of science in this field. For example, biohacking can also be used to modify a person's physique or capacities. 

5G is the 5th generation of mobile networks, and an evolution of current 4G networks. 

• Opportunities: 5G will offer near ubiquitous ultra-broadband (ultra-fast data sharing) and low-latency connectivity (near real-time network responsiveness), not just for individual users, but also for a range of critical social and economic services
• Dangers: 5G may entail various new security challenges: 
  • Local or global disruption 
  • Data traffic/data espionage  
  • Modification or redirection of data/data traffic 
  • Destruction or modification of other digital infrastructure or IT systems.   

These challenges, combined with increased dependence on 5G networks for economic and social functions, could have negative consequences.  

An artificial intelligence system is a machine system that is capable of operating autonomously, adapting and generating predictions, content, recommendations or decisions on the basis of inputs. AI includes all technologies that combine data, algorithms and computing power. 

• Opportunities: AI can offer a variety of benefits to individuals and services. For example, it can help detect and combat certain risks, such as cyber attacks, disinformation and the exploitation of vulnerabilities in systems.
• Dangers: AI can also be used to carry out cyber attacks, spread disinformation, commit acts of interference, exploit vulnerabilities of services, etc.

A blockchain is like a notebook, but with computers. Each page of the notebook is a "block", and when a page is filled, a new page starts, linked to the previous one, creating a "chain" of pages. Cryptocurrencies are an application based on blockchain. These currencies are traded between investors, but there is no central authority to oversee them.

• Opportunities: Cryptocurrencies are often used for international money transfers, for example from migrants to their families back home, as transactions are almost instantaneous and costs are low. Moreover, the application is highly transparent, enabling easy exchanges between various parties.
• Dangers: Certain individuals, in particular criminals, use cryptocurrencies to make their activities difficult, if not almost impossible, to trace.  Cryptocurrency investments are also often used as a pretext for various fraudulent practices.  

The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to a vast network of devices equipped with sensors and software, which allow faster and simpler data collection and exchange. The IoT merges the physical and digital worlds, enabling objects to be detected and controlled remotely.

• Opportunities: The IoT offers various opportunities in industry, thanks to efficiency gains, in agriculture through intelligent resource management, but also in the private domain, for example with smart homes, connected watches or cars.
• Dangers: More connected devices means more digital security problems, such as outdated software, lack of cybersecurity or technical failures, increased risk of misconfiguration and more entry points for hackers.   

Quantum computing is a technology based on so-called quantum calculations. These computers can perform extremely complex calculations at lightning speed, enabling them to outperform the current generation of computers. This technology is still in full development.  

• Opportunities: Quantum computing makes it possible to solve mathematical problems that even the most powerful conventional supercomputers could never solve.  
• Dangers: Many pillars of cybersecurity rely on encryption, which quantum computing could render useless. This represents a major risk for the digital security of our society. Cybersecurity will have to adapt, with the challenge of developing and implementing post-quantum cryptography. 

The energy transition is the shift of the world's energy mix from fossil fuels to decarbonised energy sources in the second half of this century. It is part of the fight against climate change, aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C.  

• Opportunities: The electrification of the economy, a consequence of the energy transition, is reducing our dependence on fossil fuels.
• Dangers: There are various consequences to changing the energy supply: fluctuations in energy prices, European and international politics, ecological risks, but also new technological risks, risks linked to energy supply and the management of raw materials (including potential conflicts) and financial stability.   

System interdependence is when two entities become mutually dependent.  

• Opportunities: Interdependencies foster cooperation and synergy between those involved. They offer many advantages that contribute to the efficiency, resilience and innovation of economic and social systems thanks to specialisation. 
• Dangers: The failure of a single infrastructure can spread, through physical or digital connections, to all the other infrastructure in the system, resulting in downstream and upstream disruptions that can descend into a crisis.   

Polarisation is a process by which groups within society oppose each other. It arises when there is a marked psychological division between "us" and "them". This can lead to prejudice, hate speech and even hate crimes. 

• Opportunities: Partisan politics, activism and differences of opinion can lead to conflict and polarisation (in the form of distance between different points of view or convictions). If these dynamics find a constructive outlet without becoming hostile, they are part of the smooth functioning of democracy.   
• Dangers: If groups have contempt for each other or become hostile towards each other, tensions can become harmful and threatening, putting society under pressure. A deeply divided community with a strong "them against us" mentality is a breeding ground for radicalisation. In extreme cases, it can lead to violence.  

Erosion of privacy is the process by which an individual's privacy is diminished by technological advances and increased surveillance. This leads to large-scale collection and analysis of personal data by companies and authorities, the use of tracking devices and software, and a blurring between public and private spaces. As a result, our actions, preferences and locations become increasingly transparent and accessible to others. This can lead to a loss of control over our personal data, making us less able to safeguard certain aspects of our privacy. 

• Opportunities: Individuals have unwittingly relinquished some of their privacy, which makes life in society much easier, particularly in terms of national security, public health, transparency and online services. Personal data is also a valuable source for scientific research.     
• Dangers: The risk is directly linked to the level of access a malicious actor could have to this personal data, and to the mass of data they could exploit for other purposes. This exposes individuals to abuse (including, but not limited to, identity theft, fraud, surveillance and tracking, manipulation and influence, discrimination and exclusion).