What are hybrid threats?

There is currently no internationally recognised definition of the term "hybrid threats". In Belgium, we use the definition of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE):

The term hybrid threat refers to an action conducted by state or non-state actors, whose goal is to undermine or harm a target by combining overt and covert military and non-military means. These actions are coordinated and synchronised, and deliberately target the vulnerabilities of democratic countries and institutions. The actions can take place in the political, economic, military, civil or information domains. They are carried out using a wide range of means and are designed to remain below the detection and attribution threshold.

In short, hostile actors use a variety of techniques to attack their adversaries in different domains (e.g. political, military, economic, social, information or infrastructure). Using a coordinated, targeted strategy, various techniques are used individually or simultaneously to undermine democracy and a country's sense of security, sow fear, divide society and increase their own influence.

Who are the hybrid actors?

We can identify two types of hybrid actors.

State actors

State actors are generally authoritarian regimes with centralised political control, where freedoms and rights are limited. These actors have clear malicious intentions, strong offensive capabilities and a coherent strategy to conduct hybrid actions.

Examples of hybrid state actors are countries such as Russia, China and Iran. These countries seek to achieve their strategic objectives - such as increasing their influence and power at the global level - by interfering in and influencing the affairs of other states. Hybrid threats are a cost-effective way of achieving these objectives and disrupting the processes and institutions of democratic countries.

Non-state actors

Non-state actors are groups, movements or organisations that are not part of a state structure, but which often pursue objectives that have an impact on the vital interests of the state. They may be extremists, terrorist groups, hacker collectives or organised criminal networks.

These actors often seek to exert influence by ignoring international rules, circumventing them or exploiting them to their own advantage. As they are not sovereign states, they have more freedom to act. Moreover, they can be recruited by authoritarian state actors to carry out missions on their behalf. These are called “proxies” (= subcontractors). For example: the Wagner Group is a private military organisation active around the world, often on behalf of Russia.

State actors can also call on freelancers, recruited via social networks. These people can be assigned missions such as intelligence gathering, propaganda campaigns, military reconnaissance or sabotage of infrastructure.

It is not easy, and sometimes impossible, to identify who is behind a hybrid threat, and attribute incidents to a specific actor.

Examples of hybrid threats

Some examples of hybrid threats:

Disinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic: hybrid actors spread false information about the virus, possible treatments and vaccines in order to undermine the official information or, at the very least, sow doubt. This led to polarisation and demonstrations, images of which were then widely shared to "prove" the failure of Western governments.
Elections: by spreading fake news, hybrid actors can sow doubt among the population or influence electoral choices in a way that benefits their own strategic agenda. Some actors also pay politicians to adopt certain laws, or attack electoral infrastructure via cyber attacks or espionage to undermine public confidence in government.
Ukraine prior to 2022: between 2014 and 2022, Ukraine often served as a testing ground for various hybrid warfare techniques, such as physical and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, disinformation and polarisation campaigns aimed at convincing the eastern provinces to secede from Ukraine.