Influx of people in need of international protection
The influx of people seeking international protection means that a large number of people arrive in Belgium. They flee persecution, conflict, violence or other dangers in their home countries, and seek protection from the Belgian state.
At certain times of the year, certain events can lead to a higher influx than at other times.
Risks and causes
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What can you do?
There are no specific recommendations for this risk.
Check out our general advice to follow before, during, and after an emergency.
Impact and probability
The figures relating to probability and impact describe an influx of people of major magnitude. The BNRA theoretically describes such a scenario as follows:
- There is an influx of between 35,000 and 100,000 people seeking international protection in Belgium. In the case of temporary protection (an exceptional procedure in the event of a mass influx), this influx is between 65,000 and 130,000 people, corresponding to 60% of the influx.
- The influx of these people is spread over a 12-month period.
- In Belgium, 90% of arrivals are unannounced, while 10% are organised by the authorities via resettlement and/or residence programmes.
- Belgian citizens have a positive perception of people seeking temporary protection, in contrast to a negative perception of the other group of refugees.
How should you interpret these results?
Within the BNRA, experts assessed three scenarios for each risk: considerable, major or extreme. On each page, you will find the results of the scenario with the highest score based on the combination of likelihood and impact. This does not mean that this scenario will occur or is the most likely. Read more here about how to correctly interpret the results.
Probability
Weak
Human impact
Moderate
Societal impact
Weak
Environmental impact
No impact
Financial impact
Weak
What do the authorities do?
In Belgium, various bodies are involved in the asylum procedure and managing people seeking international protection:
- The Immigration Office is responsible for registering applications for international protection lodged in Belgium or at the border, and decides whether Belgium - or another Member State - is responsible for processing the application (Dublin Regulation). The Immigration Office is also responsible for issuing temporary protection certificates to temporarily displaced persons.
- The Commissioner General for Refugees and Stateless Persons (CGRA) is responsible for examining applications for international protection and deciding whether or not applicants qualify for refugee status or subsidiary protection. The CGRA can grant protection by recognising a person as a refugee or granting them subsidiary protection. A refugee is a person who fears persecution in their country of origin. A person who runs a real risk of suffering serious harm as a result of war or violence, but who does not fear individual persecution, is granted subsidiary protection status.
- Fedasil is responsible for receiving and assisting applicants for international protection, and works with a number of partners, including the Red Cross. The Red Cross supports the authorities in organising the reception of people seeking international protection.