International Armed Conflict (IAC)
An International Armed Conflict (IAC) is a situation where states resort to armed force, even if the state of war is not recognised by one of them.
Risks and causes
Causes
What can you do?
International armed conflict can have far-reaching consequences. Read more about the measures taken by the authorities in the event of an interruption of various essential services or supplies in the list of social risks.
Impact and probability
The figures relating to probability and impact describe a large-scale international armed conflict. The BNRA theoretically describes such a scenario as follows:
- A conflict breaks out on NATO territory, but not within Belgium's borders.
- The conflict requires a major commitment of Belgian military personnel and equipment in the conflict zone.
How should you interpret these results?
Within the BNRA, experts assessed three scenarios for each risk: considerable, major or extreme. On each page, you will find the results of the scenario with the highest score based on the combination of likelihood and impact. This does not mean that this scenario will occur or is the most likely. Read more here about how to correctly interpret the results.
Probability
Very weak
Human impact
Moderate
Societal impact
Moderate
Environmental impact
Very weak
Financial impact
Moderate
What do the authorities do?
The Ministry of Defence is responsible for managing military personnel and equipment.