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What does the BNRA consist of?

Verschillende risico's
The Belgian National Risk Assessment (BNRA) consists of 118 risks, divided into seven categories. For all but emerging risks, the experts determined the impact and likelihood, three possible risk scenarios, the causes and consequences, the potential impact of climate change, and the cross-border implications. 

118 risks in 7 categories 

Experts identified within the BRNA: 

  • 23 natural hazards, e.g. floods
  • 10 health risks, for example, a pandemic
  • 23 man-made risks. These are divided into: 
    • 5 possible actors or perpetrators, e.g. right-wing extremist actor
    • 18 other man-made risks, e.g. attack on a soft target
  • 23 techno-economic risks, for example, a train accident
  • 5 cyber risks, e.g. cyber attack on critical infrastructures
  • 22 social risks, for example, a disruption of the power grid
  • 12 emerging risks, e.g. climate change

Impact, probability, causes and consequences 

Example analysisTo assess the severity of these 118 risks, the experts looked at: 

  • the probability of a risk, or likelihood of a risk occurring in Belgium.
  • the impact of a risk.

They determined the impact of a risk using four categories:

  • Impact on humans: number of deaths, number of people injured, number of people ill, number of people in need of assistance.
  • Impact on society: shortages in different types of needs (e.g. potable water/food, electricity/telecommunications, waste management/mail services), reduced public order and security, reputational damage for Belgium, loss of trust in the government.
  • Environmental impact: damage to ecosystems.
  • Financial impact: potential financial loss, reduction in economic performance.

A risk never comes alone. For example, a storm can cause flooding and thus damage the power grid. 

So for all the risks, the experts also identified the causes and consequences: 

  • what other risks may cause the risk, 
  • what other risks the risk may lead to.

Intensity

For most risks, you can conceive of several scenarios with different impacts. Consider, for example, a power outage on one street lasting several hours or a power outage across the country lasting several days. Experts conducted an assessment for each risk to determine which of the three risk scenarios studied is most relevant to Belgium:

  • Considerable risk scenario: 
    • Rather low impact
    • Usually rather high probability
  • Large-scale risk scenario
    • Rather high impact
    • Usually rather low probability 
  • Extreme risk scenario
    • Very high impact
    • Usually very low probability.