Results

Important

The BNRA is a well‑founded evaluation process, but it cannot predict the unpredictable. The accuracy of the results should therefore be interpreted with the necessary nuance.

• The assessment is a snapshot in time. All experts carried out the risk assessment based on their own level of knowledge. It is possible that they were influenced to some extent by events that occurred during the process (March 2023 – March 2024).
• The results do not rule out the possibility that unforeseen extreme events may occur in the coming period.

How to read a risk page?

Definition

The definition provides a short explanation of what the risk entails.

Causes and consequences

A risk never comes alone. For example, a storm can trigger a flood and in turn cause damage to the electricity grid.

For all risks, the experts also mapped out the causes and consequences:

• which other BNRA risks can trigger this risk.
• which other BNRA risks can result from this risk.

For man-made risks, we distinguish between two types of elements:
five possible actors or perpetrators, and eighteen possible ways in which these actors operate. A perpetrator does not have causes or consequences but motives and methods. The causes and consequences listed for these risks should therefore be interpreted accordingly.

What can you do?

These tips can be applied before, during, or after the risk occurs.

Impact and probability

To assess the severity of these 118 risks, the experts reviewed:

• three possible scenarios: significant, large‑scale, or extreme
• the likelihood of a risk, or the probability that it occurs in Belgium
• the impact of a risk

For most risks, you can conceive of several scenarios with different impacts. Consider, for example, a power outage on one street lasting several hours or a power outage across the country lasting several days. 

The BNRA always provides three scenarios per risk:

• Considerable risk scenario:
  • relatively low impact
  • usually relatively high probability
• Large-scale risk scenario:
  • relatively high impact
  • usually relatively low probability
• Extreme risk scenario:
  • very high impact
  • usually a very low probability

These scenarios are the result of literature studies, expert knowledge, and insights from partners. The experts assessed all three scenarios. On the website, you will find the results of the scenario with the highest score based on probability × impact.
This does not mean that this scenario will occur or is the most likely one. However, it is the scenario that allows authorities and emergency services to prepare most effectively.

For example: for a disruption of electricity supply, the extreme scenario is the one with the highest probability × impact score. A nationwide blackout is unlikely but could have a very large impact on society. Smaller-scale outages can, of course, also occur, each with their own probability and impact.

The experts assessed the impact of each risk based on four categories:

• Impact on people: number of fatalities, injuries, illnesses, and people in need of assistance.
• Impact on society: shortages in essential needs (e.g. drinking water/food, electricity/telecommunications, waste/post services), reduced public order and safety, reputational damage for Belgium, loss of trust in government.
• Environmental impact: damage to ecosystems.
• Financial impact: potential financial losses, reduced economic performance.

What do authorities do?

Various government services work on preventing and preparing for the risks identified in the BNRA. Here you will find an overview of the key actions taken by these authorities.