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What is the BNRA?

Different risks
The National Crisis Center conducts a national risk assessment every three years. The Belgian National Risk Assessment, or BNRA, determines in a structured and scientific manner the main risks to which Belgium may be exposed.  

How was this assessment done?  

For the period 2023 – 2026, 160 experts from more than 140 different organisations studied 118 risks. These experts are mainly from the public sector. Academics and national, private operators also participated.

The evaluation proceeded in three major steps: 

  1. The National Crisis Center prepared a risk catalogue. This is a collection of relevant hazards that could have an impact in Belgium in 2023 – 2026. The selection of these hazards was based on extensive benchmarking of similar international risk assessments. 
  2. Through an online platform, the 160 experts assessed the risks from the risk catalogue. Based on their expertise, they answered questions about:
    1. Risk identification: is the definition correct?  Have the risk scenarios been well-chosen? What are the potential causes or consequences of this risk? 
    2. Risk assessment: what is the probability and impact of the risk? How and to what extent does climate change affect the risk in the period 2050 – 2053? 
  3. Where necessary, consensus meetings were held on a risk-by-risk basis with the experts involved. This allowed them to discuss differing opinions and give their agreement for the final assessment.

Why a BRNA?  

Risk identification and analysis. National resilience. National Preparation. Crisis Management. Recovery. Evaluation.

The BNRA completes the first step of the risk cycle. The first step is the identification and assessment of risks. 

The results of the BNRA are an important source of information for all subsequent steps of the risk cycle, such as the creation and updating of emergency plans and procedures. The insights from the BNRA contribute to more efficient emergency planning and better crisis management.

Points for consideration 

The BNRA is an informed evaluation process, but it cannot predict the unpredictable. Thus, the accuracy of the analyses must be approached with the necessary nuance

  • The assessment is a snapshot in time. All the experts conducted the risk analyses based on their own level of knowledge. It is possible that they were influenced to an extent by the events that took place during the assessment (March 2023 – March 2024). 
  • The results do not rule out unforeseen extreme events in the coming period.

BNRA: a recurring process

The BNRA 2023 – 2026 builds upon the previous national risk assessment for 2018 – 2023. A new innovative risk assessment methodology has been developed for this edition. It sets a new standard for future Belgian national risk assessments. 

The results of the risk assessment are valid for the period 2023 – 2026. The National Crisis Center will conduct a new assessment for the period 2026 – 2029.

Video description.